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Key themes include broadband, processing power, and near-free storage; the rise of the social OS, the post-PC era, race for data supremacy.
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Internet Infrastructure Companies can run their internet infrastructure as do-it-yourself solutions, by leasing wholesale data center space from REITs, leasing network-neutral space from providers, or completely outsourcing all infrastructure needs to managed hosting providers. Investors have starting looking at data centers in terms of total returns and giving the sector credit for higher terminal multiples.
Communications Hardware Transaction Processing Defined There are three essential roles transaction processing companies play: a network, a merchant acquirer, and an issuer processor. Mobility is reshaping the purchasing and payment experience, greater reliance upon emerging markets for organic growth, increasing government intervention.
Operating margin has generally been stable during periods of growth, so has been more of a factor in assigning relative valuation among the various providers. Transition to digital and mobile world; evolution favors good content creators; future of advertising, and focused on shareholder returns.
For fixed income, yield, ratings and relative value, total return, r eturn, and structure are considered. The moderate barriers to entry and stable cash flow make telecom companies defensive businesses and lead to above-average dividend yields over time. The drive for more efficient operations and a more effective labor force saw U. The result is a giant sector on the leading edge of the U.
Tech Share of Spending and Investment 5. We suspect that businesses and consumers alike will only continue to expand upon these spending habits as the economic recovery continues to progress in the year ahead.
Meanwhile, ad spending should follow on the heels of broad corporate profit growth, benefiting media companies that offer businesses the opportunity to reach a broad audience of potential buyers. The TMT story is not one of just the last few years of economic recovery, but extends more broadly over many years, even decades. As providers continue to find ways to leverage social desires for connectivity, mobility, and efficiency, technology is increasingly integrated into economies.
The increasing integration of TMT has likely helped to aid a reduction in relative earnings volatility in the space space that may be underappreciated by many investors.
Thus, technology, media and telecom securities offer investors more than the opportunity to leverage the major trends toward mobility, efficiency, and connectivity. The sector is also increasingly shareholder-friendly. In our view, the ability of companies to pay out to a yield-starved investor base may be one of the largest of drivers demand for securities overseem the not nextonly several As shareholder demand for return capitalofaccelerates, TMT companies able,years.
Steady earnings, high cash, and cheap debt funding have allowed the technology sector to pursue typical, as well as atypical, capital deployment strategies in recent years. However, technology companies have also started to pursue deployment of capital in the form of dividends—a strategy formerly anathema to the sector.
Media companies remain primarily focused on share buybacks. While dividends continue to largely take a backseat to buybacks, there is a long-term trend of rising yield in media. From the low reached in of just 0. Telecommunication services companies, meanwhile, have the highest payout ratio and highest dividend yield in the index. Just index. Buybacks are small, but nonetheless increasing.
On the pages that follow, we aim to detail the immense opportunities evident in TMT, as well as the challenges that inevitably accompany such opportunities. TMT Portfolio Consideration Considerations s While investors understandably lump the technology, media, and telecommunications telecommunications industries together given clear thematic links, each segment offers unique qualities when it comes to its inclusion in an investment portfolio. Indeed, over one-year, five-year, and ten-year horizons, the relative performance of technology, media, and telecom stocks varies vastly, and correlation of relative returns is nearly zero.
From a top-down perspective, we suggest investors should consider the stage of the business cycle and sensitivity to the market to take advantage of performance differentials. As for intersector security selection, we suggest that factors such as geographic exposure and business model are important to consider for tech, while margins and pricing strategies remain key for telecom.
Return of capital is a key consideration across groups in TMT. While the tech sector has become more services oriented in recent years, industry groups such as semiconductors and communications equipment continue to trade very closely with the global inventory and production cycle. Technology sector relative performance troughed in late , three months before the broader market trough in Technology surpassed pre-recession relative performance peaks before the economy was even out of recession in early The media industry, highly levered to both consumer services spending as well as business investment spending, tends to trade best in the middle of the business cycle, when economic stability is fairly well established.
In contrast to the early outperformance of technology sector stocks, the media industry did not form a relative performance bottom until , and even then did not manage to surpass its pre-recession relative performance peak until well into this economic expansion. While the business cycle position of both technology and media seems to be quite clear, the telecom services industry appears to have shifted character in recent years.
Through the s, telecom services traded in close correlation to the media segment. However, with acceleration in dividend payout, high dividend yield, and lowered earnings volatility, telecom has become a late-cycle outperformer. Note, telecom relative performance peaked just after the market bottomed in Thus, general sensitivity to moves in the equity market has become a key consideration consideration for portfolio construction.
It may surprise investors to hear that of the three segments within TMT, the media industry trades with the highest sensitivity to the broader market. Simply, when stocks broadly rise, media stocks will likely benefit, but when stocks fall, media stocks will feel the brunt of declines. Indeed, media beta is 1. Tech is market-beta.
Meanwhile, market-beta. Meanwhile, technology sector beta peaked about a decade ago, and has trended lower ever since, ending at just 0.
Multiple factors likely explain this defensive shift, including steady earnings growth and rising cash stores in the sector. Telecom is low-beta. Telecom sector beta is just 0. Low-beta segments of the market such as telecom tend to perform particularly well during periods of high market volatility.
Most U. Related to this, sales of many, but not all, U. Companies large foreign currencyexchange exposure rates often and haveglobal currency hedging strategies in place, so currency changes may have a larger effect on revenue than on earnings. As a means of returning cash to shareholders, U. A choice of different business models for many of the major growth themes. The technology subsegments we discuss in this report have widely varying business models, but benefit from many of the same major technology trends, such as the growth of the Internet.
For example, software and services typically have recurring revenue streams, which in principle result in stability and good visibility, while hardware and component companies have businesses associated with the sale sal e of capital and consumer goods, which arguably have a large amount of upward leverage in an economic upturn.
Appealing Capital. Appealing to the yield-starved investor, the large media players are in a mode of returning capital to shareholders in the form of large-scale share repurchase authorizations and dividends. Payouts are occasionally even more than generated free cash flow since most have room on their balance sheet to accommodate such actions. Top-Line Growth.
Since media is heavily dependent upon advertising, and advertising is closely correlated to GDP growth, many investors monitor top-line growth of various media entities, especially in weak macroeconomic times, as a barometer of industry health.
Margin Expansion. Thanks to the explosion of media content across various screens e. Another contributor to this phenomenon is subscription video-on-demand providers, like Netflix, and the increase in retransmission consent deals, which is helping to deliver high-margin, incremental profits to the media group. The wireless industry is especially capital intensive, and carriers must show that they are able to get a good return on investment.
Regulatory Environment and Competitive Landscape. Telecom is a highly regulated industry, which mandates investors keep an eye on pending regulatory changes. Meanwhile, telecom especially wireless is an extremely competitive industry.
Pricing and margin are critical issues for telecom. With the highest dividend yield and highest dividend payout ratio among sectors in the index, dividends are a large part of the telecom story. Commitment to dividends has elevated telecom as a defensive sector. This involves the following: Creating the means to represent, store, process, and transmit information electronically semiconductors and electronics components, computer hardware, communications hardware.
Creating the means or controlling the electronic systems and organizing the information software operating systems.
Inventing ways that people and businesses can use information software applications and, at a higher level, Internet applications and websites. Software companies—developing companies—developing the programming that makes it possible to use computer and communications hardware.
Transaction processing companies—enabling companies—enabling payments and movement of money. Information services companies—developing companies—developing ways to handle and make sense of information. IT Services companies—helping companies—helping set up computer and communications hardware. Communications hardware companies—developing companies—developing and making the hardware that helps send information from place to place. Computer hardware companies—developing companies—developing and making computers and other hardware devices such as storage systems that are necessary for handling and processing information.
Semiconductor and other component companies—developing companies— developing the pieces of electronics that are at the heart of electronics systems like computers and communications hardware.
Some threads that run through the various segments include: The ongoing buildout and use of the Internet creates growth for technology companies. New things to do with the Internet are constantly emerging e. New ways to use or get to the Internet are evolving mobility, cloud computing. After many decades of growth, we believe believe that semiconductors semiconductors are still a high-growth industry. Strong Internet traffic growth drives data center demand.
Migration to third-party environments creates attractive growth opportunity. Technology, particularly mobile, would be critical in driving more acceptance at a faster rate. Technology enables the formation of new competitive threats. Potential for payments industry to be part pa rt of marketing and analytics.
Data analytics is simply the science of drawing conclusions through the examination of data. Companies likely will be created, combined, and partnerships forged as a result of the growth of data.
Growth expected in the high single digits with pockets much faster. Many of the larger technology companies have active acquisition strategies that add some additional, inorganic growth. Many IT companies are focused on raising profitability and margin, driving EPS growth that is higher than revenue growth. Successful acquisition strategies can also add to EPS growth. EPS growth potential for many technology segments is of the order of high-single-digit to midteens percent per year.
Many of the IT segments have matured to the point where the larger companies are solidly profitable. A philosophical difference between equity and fixed-income securities is that bonds offer current income as opposed to future capital gains. In a traditional yield curve environment, longerdated bonds should yield more than shorter-dated maturities. Various measures of yield include: current yield, yield to call, yield to maturity, and yield to worst. Bond At Value. In high grade, investors use spread to Treasury as the standard measure of risk, while high-yield bond buyers focus more on absolute absolute yield.
Total return is an important measure among fixed-income investors— especially high-yield investors—because it incorporates price change, coupon and yield over a fixed period usually one year. As a result, total return of any given bond is often an appropriate risk-adjusted surrogate for equity return.
Another Structure. For example, a senior secured bond tends to trade much more richly than a junior subordinated piece of debt since the holder of that paper does not take on as much risk. Pricing may vary depending not only on seniority but also on leverage covenants, holding company versus operating company origination, guarantee language, change of control provisions, and coupon step requirements. These include personal computers, servers large computers that personal computers connect to , and enterprise storage systems that can be used to store data.
Many IT hardware companies focus on the design of systems and outsource the manufacturing of systems to contract manufacturers. The larger IT hardware companies often get involved in software development as well to help differentiate their systems. Key Themes Mobility —N oteboo otebookk s, Tablets, Tablets, S mar tphones The theme of mobility has had a profound effect on increasing the addressable market for computing hardware.
We believe that over the last decade notebooks increased the addressable market in the consumer space by x, making consumer computers a personal item with the addressable market being every individual in a household, in contrast to consumer desktops, which were often purchased on a one-per-household basis. In addition, in the corporate market, notebooks have increased the addressable base from one computer per worker to more than one computer one computer per worker some workers require both desktops and laptops.
Worldwide smartphone shipments increased about 4x from to , with about million smartphones shipped in Although tablets might overlap somewhat with smartphones and netbooks, we think that tablets have primarily created their own demand and contribute to incremental sales of computing devices.
Over the past 20 years, the widespread availability of computing resources and the growth of the Internet have brought computing to the consumer and, as a result, a large number of computer-based activities such as, email and online shopping. This has required substantial buildout of computer infrastructure worldwide.
Cloud computing is also contributing to buildout demand. One basic building block of computer infrastructure is the computer server. However, the market for other types of servers for example Unix servers and mainframe servers has been slowly declining over the last few years, and we think that this decline is likely to continue. We think there is ample opportunity for continuing growth of PCs in emerging markets.
One striking characteristic about companies that are commonly included in the IT hardware group is how many of them are constantly evolving. HP has also recently looked into divesting its PC division, though after evaluating its options decided against doing this. Companies moving into new businesses with different margin and growth characteristics can iPhone have an important impact on relative valuation between the various IT hardware stocks.
IT services businesses are often based on long-term contracts that play out over many years. Software refers to one or more computer programs and data held in the storage of the computer for some purpose. In other words, software is a set of programs, procedures, algorithms and its documentation concerne concerned d with the operation of a data processing system.
Leading subcategories within the software market address virtually all business functional areas and include enterprise resource management ERM , supply chain management SCM , customer relationship management CRM , business intelligence BI , enterprise content management ECM , IT service management, human capital management HCM , data management, and enterprise application integration EAI , and systems security and management.
The software market generally does not include custom or internally developed programs, training fees, or opensource software applications. Key Themes We believe the software industry is undergoing a dramatic technological and cultural shift around social, mobility, and consumerization that is ushering in a new era for business software.
Among the themes that we see as central to this transformation are: 1 shift to cloud computing, 2 proliferation of mobile devices, 3 ongoing social adoption, 4 the consumerization of traditional IT via bizumers, 5 growing business adoption of engagement apps, 6 the widespread growth in data, and 7 increasing use of IT by chief marketing officers CMOs.
We believe that will mark the period where cloud solutions become the first option for deployment. Over the last few years, we believe the value proposition, security model, and cost have been proven. This is important because it marks the end of the evangelical phase of the transformation and the entrance into mass adoption. The devices. The rapid and ongoing adoption of mobile computing is accelerating in We expect mobile devices smartphones and tablets to eclipse PC unit sales as more form factors, price p rice points, and platforms reach maturity.
The widespread use of social media is forcing companies to change not just their marketing approach but also the means by which they engage on the web with their customers. The phenomenon of social media usage, sharing, and user-generated content is radically altering both local commerce and advertising.
We believe the rise of business consumers of technology what we call bizumers , are the driving catalyst in the ongoing consumerization of IT. Consumer technology is amazing, but when people get to work they find outdated, difficult-to-use, unintuitive, and desktop-centric offerings. However, there is major change coming to the workplace, as the principles behind consumer technology are beginning to infiltrate infiltrate corporate IT.
Exhibit 1. Engagement apps. Engagement is the new killer app in business software, in our view. These systems represent a new layer in the application topology, moving beyond analytical and transactional systems.
We define engagement apps as applications, processes, and analytical tools that enable companies to actively interact and empower interactions with chain. Exhibit 2. IT professionals are focused on the changes happening in the data market. We think that the more appropriate way to look at the changes in data is through the lens of what we call the five Vs of data: 1 variety variety unstructured, nonrelational , 2 velocity velocity in memory computing and flash , 3 volume volume machine-generated machine-generated and social , 4 visualization visualization new UX and formats for users , 5 value value improvement improvement in predictive analytics.
Exhibit 3. The IT. Due to growth in online advertising, social technologies, mobility, and the digitization of local commerce, marketers are taking greater responsibility for all aspects of consumer engagement via information technology. The majority of sales revenue for SaaS companies is usually deferred, while marketing and sales costs are realized up-front, leading to lower initial net income and EPS levels with economies in later periods.
As a consequence, consequence, SaaS companies are more frequently valued valued on a revenue and cash flow multiple basis. Athenahea Athenahealth lth Inc. Baza Bazaar arvo voic ice e Inc. Carbon Carbonite ite Inc. Concur Concur Technologies Inc. Salesf Salesforc orce.
Cornersto Cornerstone ne OnDemand Inc. Consta Constant nt Contact Inc. Inform Informati atica ca Corp. Jiv Jiv e Software Inc. Ke Kenex nexa a Corp.
LivePe LivePerso rson n Inc. Medi Medidata data Solutions Inc. Responsys Inc. Mic Micros rosoft oft Corp. Ne NetA tApp pp Inc. Ora Oracle cle Corp. Re ea a lPa lPage ge Inc. Sync Synchrono hronoss ss Technologies Inc. Sc SciQ iQue uest st Inc. Tan Tangoe goe Inc. Ul Ulti tima mate te Software Group Inc. VMwa VMware re Inc. Vo Vocu cuss Inc. The company provides hosted collaboration and relationship management solutions for a monthly subscription fee. The company also provides enterprise cloud computing applications on its Force.
The company was founded in , and has its headquarters in San Francisco, California. Marc Benioff, founder, chief executive officer and chairman of Salesforce. This is the renaissance. We are in the great time.
This is the time to create all this amazing new technology. The company has built a client roster of world-class customers that includes Burberry, Toyota, Electronic Arts, and most recently, Hewlett Packard. In our view, Salesforce is arguably the bestpositioned software vendor in the cloud market, and we believe that over the next few years it will become a much larger company, with much higher profits as it drives social enterprise cloud adoption.
The tool features real-time collaboration, user-initiated groups, and other social features. As discussed earlier, we believe that the ongoing consumerization macrotrend will drive both increased demand for these types of social engagement applications within the enterprise as a means to improve efficiency and collaboration.
The product suite includes integration with leading social media platforms such as YouTube, Twitter, Twitter, and LinkedIn LinkedIn and contains a number of applications fromamonitoring trendsoftothe communicating across socialand platforms. We believe that Salesforce has clearly been on a roll in recent months, announcing seven-figure seven-figure transactions in its most recent quarter, and nine eight-figure deals. We view these announcements as confirmation that large enterprises are increasingly looking to Salesforce as a strategic partner.
However, in our opinion, what differentiates Salesforce from these competitors is the strong beachhead it has established within social, mobile, and in-the-cloud delivery. We believe that the momentum is on the side of Salesforce, and that the recent spate of acquisitions by competitors demonstrates both the value of the end markets and a nd the need by some of several other players in the enterprise software market to catch up.
A semiconductor is a type of electronic material that is halfway between something that conducts electricity e. A plastic. A semiconductor material can be altered to vary how much electricity it will conduct, which makes it possible to make various electronic devices within a semiconductor, and connect these devices together to make various electric circuits.
These electric circuits can do a variety of things, including thinking logic circuits and remembering information memory chips. Tiny devices can be in a semiconductor, which makes it possible to create very complicated circuits in a small amount of space.
A microprocessor that powers a personal computer might have billions of devices transistors on a chip the size of a thumbnail. Semiconductors provide the essential intellectual property IP that underpins virtually all modern technology. Semiconductors are typically at the heart of all electronic devices.
Some chip companies with broad exposure to most of the chip end markets include analog companies such as Texas Instruments, Analog Devices, Maxim, and Linear Technology. We than believe that many view semiconductors a maturing market, in which the growth rate is slowing. However, the unit growth rate of semiconductors growth of individual semiconductor chips follows a completely different pattern.
Our analysis suggests that the sales growth from was greater than the unit growth primarily because of a mix shift. During that time computers were a significant significant driver of chip demand growth, and computers contain a number of chips with high average selling prices ASPs , such as microprocessors.
This broadened the mix of semiconductors in the s. One important driver of chip growth from was wireless handsets, which have a less rich mix of chips than computers. Over the next several years, we think that some of the big growth drivers for the semiconductor industry include the computer server market buildout of the Internet and cloud computing and smartphones, which both have a relatively rich mix of high-ASP chips.
Our assumption is that the long-term trend for semiconductor sales growth is likely to roughly match integrated circuit unit growth. This results r esults in increased capability of semiconductor chips for a given cost. A little more than 20 years ago, a typicalpieces computer had of about 1 megabyte of DRAM memory thea ability retain about million of information to work on at any given time. Today typicalto computer mighta come with 4 gigabytes of memory the ability to work directly on 4 billion pieces of information —4,x the amount of memory.
There are whole classes of devices, such as wireless handsets that can be made small enough and cheap enough to be useful. Semiconductor content and functionality has found its way into many new places such as automobiles. Exhibit 3 shows year-over-year growth for worldwide semiconductor integrated circuit IC sales and units. Although unit growth does show a fair amount of variation, it is in the sales graph that a clear seven-year cyclical pattern can be seen from The two semiconductor cycles that can be seen in this period were driven by pricing expansion sales growth higher than unit growth during cyclical upturns , We think the data show that in the past 12 years, since , there has not been any obvious semiconductor-specific cycle in which pricing expansion drove an upturn for an extended period.
For the most part, the graph of year-over-year sales growth has tracked closely with the graph of year-over-year unit growth.
As might be expected, the semiconductor industry is still affected by global economic cycles. This separates the organizations that carry high capital risk the chip foundries from the companies selling the chips the fabless chip companies , reducing the effect of factory utilization considerations on pricing. This is in contrast to the widespread focus on growth and market share that characterized the pre period.
Intel has steadily increased its dividend payment over the past 20 years. Intel, in fact, is one of the few chip companies that has a long history of paying dividends. It is only in the last few years that many of the larger and midsized chip companies have begun paying dividends all. However, there an ongoing toward making dividend payments chip companies. Exhibit 4. Intel Corp. Corporations, public and private institutions, academic institutions, and the government all communicate using computer networks.
While there are numerous types of Internet-based companies, we are primarily focused on firms in the subcategories of e-commerce, online advertising, search, and social media. Key Themes Internet accessibility has transformed how people fundamentally communicate, collaborate, consume content, and conduct commerce.
We believe that we are moving toward a world in which people use multiple devices, in multiple locations, maintain large and diversified content libraries, use their smartphone to find and buy things both online and in physical stores, and inherently share their experiences.
We think consumer technology will realign around the needs of the consumer, rather than the individual capacities of different devices and applications. We foresee this megatrend evolving over the next five years as mobile broadband becomes prevalent, the use of HTML 5 goes mainstream, and social disrupts more distribution channels.
In this user-centric world, vendor competition and differentiation likely will increasingly be based on ease of access to data and content, potential potential for user personalization and discovery, and and ability to seamlessly integrate within the context of each user. Below we highlight what we believe are the five leading Internet and technology mega-trends affecting our coverage universe: 1 Broadband, Processing Power, and Near-Free Storage.
Consumer behavior, convenience, and preferences now drive media consumption, with the digital home as a s the hub for media consumption and management, and the cloud gaining prominence for storage.
For companies we see expanding content production, discovery, distribution, and transactional opportunities. Yet with these opportunities come increasing challenges. Barriers to entry are dropping and tech-empowered consumers are emerging as worthy competitors in the realm of publishing and commerce influencers. On the marketing front, tech advances now yield a tantalizing menu of options as the Internet has evolved from a text- or image-based billboard to a multimedia platform capable of competing with traditional analog media in terms of scale, engagement, and efficacy.
Over the next five years, we think the direction of consumer technology will largely be shaped by the actions of the large platform vendors, including Apple, Amazon, Google, and Microsoft, as well as some of the rising ecosystems like Twitter and other well known social networks. The Social OS is a metaphorical operating system about all the things that matter to an individual, whereas the traditional OS was designed for a specific machine and the applications tied to that device. The social OS is highly personalized, lives in the cloud, operates across any number of devices, especially mobile, and encompasses user content, communication, context, and commerce.
We believe sharing and ubiquitous access will prove to be the driving forces behind social-based disruptions to marketing, communication and retail. From a vendor standpoint, we see the world changing rather quickly where the locus of value in consumer technology is shifting to that data.
These data d ata can be the social or interest graph, search intentions, content, commerce, and communication. We believe that over the next five years, the data generated from these activities will become a lynchpin for growth. We believe the platform that creates the most consumer value will capture the most data. With visibility into identity, the platform vendor can market and monetize the user in various forms.
As hardware innovation advances and prices decline, we believe mobile device form factors will proliferate in number and variety in the coming year.
Notebooks will likely become lighter, tablets smaller, and phones more versatile. All of them will likely become cheaper, lighter, and more powerful. For marketers, we believe will be a year of rapid adoption, as experimental budgets give way to committed efforts and the meaningful incorporation of mobile into product and service design.
Beyond simple advertising, we expect mobile to play an increasing role in customer relationship management CRM , as well. For retail, while we expect mobile commerce growth to continue, we will see perhaps greater effect on retail by deviceby and mobile Web ubiquity the store where hidden positives are being overlooked investors.
Mobile couldatactually be level, a saving grace for physical shopping. It is true that barcode scanning apps bring increased price transparency to physical stores and turn some stores into showrooms for Amazon. We believe, however, that this could be offset by the benefits derived from other emerging mobile technologies. These include 1 mobile devices for store associates that provide real-time inventory data and product information, as well as advanced CRM data, and mobile checkout, 2 self-checkout apps so that customers can scan and pay without waiting in line, and 3 mobile shopping walls that bring retail billboards to airports and other busy public spaces with minimal capital capital investment and labor expense.
With their skew toward content consumption rather than messaging and communication , we believe tablets will gain increasing levels of investment and traction among marketers seeking to diversify their mobile marketing portfolios. Video and other rich media expressions, in particular, should gain rapidly as publishers optimize their offering for tablet presentation. We believe industry moves in will underscore competitive advantages associated with practical application of data, where leverage of social graphs and linkage of behavioral data across platform should continue to drive personalization and evolution of consumer experiences.
Across online marketing, application of data is affecting a wide range of behaviors. We view programmatic buying, linkage of firstparty customer data, and improving media mix modeling as data-driven industry drivers poised to accelerate in For retail, emerging technologies are generating customer data that makes the shopping experience more exciting, efficient, personalized, and relevant.
We believe the most sophisticated retailers will use location-based apps and geofencing to know when a consumer is approaching the store, what that consumer bought the last time he or she was in the store, and what he or she was looking for online but did not buy. With this data retailers should be able to create custom offerings while engaged consumers are shopping in stores. Even more interesting but nascent is the technology that can locate where a consumer is within a store.
Companies are creating detailed shopping mall, theme park, and airport maps that work with an installed app to provide pr ovide very accurate location-based information overlaid on store or mall maps. No other advertising platform can come close to competing with the amount of first-party data that is made directly available to these networks by its hundreds of millions of users.
Although the current display advertising offerings are fairly limited in their ability to offer splashy, page-dominant creative executions executions,, the ability of marketers to pay on a performance basis and target highly discrete user groups has changed the competitive equation. Rapid advancements in smartphones, location-based services, directories, social networks, and daily deals have ushered in a digital world of local commerce. Connectivity is putting the Internet in places it has never been before and transforming the local commerce information and transaction supply chain.
Product discovery, reviews, peer referrals, discounting, and location sourcing are moving online as national online activities are expanding into local markets. Mobile price comparison applications such as those offered by Amazon and eBay are forcing traditional retailers to compete online or go out of business.
Online local commerce is reducing transaction friction and increasing velocity. We believe the strength of online video advertising on a national level will translate into growing demand for local video advertising options, whether through IP targeting of national properties or the growing syndication of professionally produced content on local online properties.
We believe local television advertising dollars will likely be the next significant target of both national and local online content providers. On the audio side, Pandora is seeking to disrupt the traditional broadcast radio advertising equation by offering new levels of targeting to a format that offered little in the way of advertiser product innovation over the past 30 years.
But tech-fueled advancement is now blurring once clean lines that separated digital from analog. Legacy, pre-Internet businesses are competing more directly with Internet pure plays than ever before. Disruption, admittedly an overused noun in the space, is now taking on different forms as technology themes have shown the potential to alter the competitive landscape of traditional sectors at different rates. We expect U. For display, we expect U.
Neither arrived. Neither the consumption of graphical content nor the concept of marketing on mobile devices is new. Yet we agree with CEO Moukas that the mobile advertising and mobile landscape stands poised to be the fastest-growing segment across the marketing ecosystem over the next five years.
Fueled by substantial advancements in data delivery speeds, device functionality and application development, the mobile device—in an increasing array of form factors—is becoming a central design and operating feature across a wide array of industries.
Mobile is transforming a wide array of businesses. Online businesses. Online content producers like AOL and Yahoo! Traditional media publishers like the Wall Street Journal and The New York Times Times have aggressively embraced mobile channel distribution at the demand of their customer bases. Elsewhere, wireless carriers and banks are discovering the efficiencies of conducting customer relationship management information exchanges via text messages rather than call centers.
Velti provides provides an end-to-end end-to-end solution. We believe Velti rises above a crowded competitive marketplace due to the range of capabilities the company offers.
For a growing number of marketers, participation in mobile advertising has become a necessity as the influence of smartphone and connected tablets has radically altered the media consumption experience.
Today, Europe accounts for the majority of revenue, but the United States and U. We expect agency channels to increase share of revenues as Velti strikes platform sales agreements, allowing agencies to leverage suite of Velti tools across installed client base, reducing outsourcing and creating an additional revenue line.
We see parallels with early days of web marketing. When When we assess the mobile marketing landscape, we see many parallels with the early days of Internet-connected PCs and web browsers, when marketers rushed headlong into a world with an entirely new communication platform.
Mobile phones may not be new, but the rising primacy of mobile-connected devices offered in an expanding array of form factors has forever changed again the dynamics of the marketing industry. With a full suite of services and emerging global reach, we view Velti as well positioned to profit from the maturation of the mobile marketing ma rketing ecosystem.
There are a number of ways that companies can run their Internet infrastructure, from do-it-yourself solutions either putting servers in a closet or building b uilding their own data centers , to leasing wholesale data center space from REITs, leasing network-neutral space from providers, such as Equinix, to completely outsourcing all infrastructure needs to managed hosting providers, such as Rackspace.
The key elements in the Internet infrastructure space follow. In-Sourcing: Google, Yahoo, and Amazon. In many cases large corporations choose to own their data center space for large server deployments.
The decision faced by companies that insource is whether it is more cost efficient to lever the balance sheet and build their facilities or outsource to a wholesale REIT and make contractual rent payments.
Wholesale etc. Wholesale data centers represent the most basic layer of outsourcing IT equipment. These companies are not involved in the day-to-day operations of running a data center. Instead they lease space and power at wholesale rates for large deployments —an average of 2 megawatts, which equate to cabinets or 12, net sellable sqare feet.
Wholesale facilities appeal to larger enterprise server deployments with less focus on connectivity mainly because it allows the enterprise to take its data center investment off balance sheet and lever the lower cost structure of the wholesale data center provider. Sometimes wholesale providers sell space to other data center companies. Those facilities have limited transport options as the carrier operator is the only transport provider available.
These companies primarily provide colocation and interconnect services. As a secondary i. What differentiates the less network-neutral is thesource, fact thatthey its customers have a number of choices for transport from third-party providers located within the facility. In addition, customers are typically attracted to the facility because there are a number of customers with whom they can exchange traffic and therefore create additional savings on transport costs.
Typical customers deployments are smaller in scale—normally 60 kilowatts, 15 cabinets, or net sellable square feet.
Deal sizes generally range from KW. Managed service providers provide complete outsourcing solutions for IT infrastructure needs. The customer literally never needs to see the inside of a data center and is literally renting space or computing power on servers owned by the managed hosting provider to run web-based applications.
Managed service providers focus on a broader service offering—such as security, monitoring, back-up, storage, network and load balancing, and various IT-related functions. This provides the operator with greater flexibility to increase same-customer revenue by up-selling additional services. We Costs. We believe that data center and managed hosting companies exhibit defensive characteristics because they allow their customers to reduce IT infrastructure costs versus do-it yourself yours elf DIY solutions solutions..
In addition, data center companies allow business to arbitrage higher-cost office space with lower-cos lower-costt warehouse warehouse space space.. Specifically, Specifically, the cost cost per square foot to store a group of servers servers in a data center in New Jersey is likely much cheaper than the cost of office space in Manhattan.
Furthermore, network-neutral providers such Equinix, InterXion, and Telex offer customers multiple telecom network options to transport bandwidth. As an example, some Equinix facilities have networks to chose from. This essentially creates a marketplace that attracts customers that require low latency to facilities. Moving up the stack, managed hosting and cloud services offers additional potential cost savings.
One of the primary advantages of outsourcing to a managed hosting or cloud provider is the ability to save on the often large upfront cost of purchasing servers for an often unknown or difficult-topredict level of customer demand and turn that capital expense into a scalable rental expense that more closely matches actual demand and usage. Managed hosting providers such as Rackspace differentiate by offering customer support in addition to outsourced IT infrastructure. In addition to save a customer on the cost of purchasing and running their server infrastructure, Rackspace essentially allows customers to outsource the bulk of their IT department.
The combination of services is particularly attractive during times economic volatility because to companies able to and avoid large upfront capital expenditures, more of closely match server capacity customerare demand, reduce head count costs while retaining quality of service.
Growth in Internet traffic is expected to remain very strong during the next four years. This should result in a need for improved IT infrastructure capacity and network bandwidth, which in turn drives drives growth in outsourcing outsourcing to data centers.
This would basically drive a mid- to high-teens average growth rate for the colocation colocation space. This is roughly in line with average growth rates that we are observing for data center companies currently.
Specifically, companies exhibit a same-store-sales growth rate in the low double digits. However, in steady states, we believe the return profiles are very attractive, which merits aboveaverage valuations.
We believe the long-term ROIC profile of the data center space is attractive. We estimate that true recurring capex for a data center is in the high-single to low-double-digit range depending on the assumptions for the useful life of the asset. We admit stocks with managed hosting and cloud exposure exhibit relative high multiples.
For example, RAX currently trades at roughly Thus, as more workloads move to cloud environments — capital intensity should improve and returns should scale. Company Description: Equinix Description: Equinix is a leading global provider of network-neutral data center and interconnection services, offering colocation, traffic exchange and outsourced IT infrastructure solutions for global enterprises, content companies, systems integrators and network service.
Trends such as mobility, cloud computing, data management, and social media are at the heart of this shift. There are more people interacting with data than ever before, and the world’s effective capacity to exchange information through telecommunications network is predicted to reach approximately exabytes annually in Clearly growth in Internet and IP traffic remains very strong, driven by online HD video adoption, ad option, cloud computing, new devices such as the iPad , growth in mobile entertainment, the introduction of wireless 4G networks capable of 10 Mbps downloads, and a host of other factors.
In fact, Streaming Media surveyed over CDN customers and the insights on traffic expectations were impressive. We believe that EQIX is a safe derivative play on this trend as growth of Internet traffic creates demand for servers and telecom infrastructure, which ultimately resides in data centers such as those owned by EQIX. Furthermore, we think EQIX stands to disproportionately benefit from this trend relative to other data center providers as their business focus is differentiated by offering network density and proximity to major markets which attracts customers focused on latency-sensitive deployments.
Neutral arms dealer to cloud infrastructure providers. While EQIX does not run its own cloud platform, the company provides highly connected physical infrastructure to support cloud deployments.
Network density creates strong demand from customers with latency-sensitive applications. This makes EQIX facilities extremely attractive for customers deploying latencysensitive applications. All of these companies rely on EQIX due to their telecom density and proximity to major markets, which helps drive higher performance on trading, video, gaming, mobile, and other latency-sensitive applications. Portfolio depth and retail focus creates high barrier to entry.
With entry. While many investors often express concern on wholesale capacity and pricing, we believe that EQIX is insulated from competition related to this segment. No other colocation provider can help customers deploy globally as EQIX can with using agreements for partner facilities internationally. This compares to the typical wholesale provider customer, which has roughly cabinets, all in one location. Other wholesale providers purely provide access to raw space and power.
This is because a wholesale provider such as Digital Realty or DuPont Fabros would need to increase headcount by a factor of 3—5x in order to support smaller retail deployments in multiple locations like EQIX does. The wireline equipment and data networking industry encompasses a wide range of technologies that enable users to send and receive voice, video, and data communications over a physical connection.
Users leverage wireline and data networking products every time they place a phone call, send an email, or go to a website. Routers are essentially the post office of the network, with data carried in IP packets analogous to envelopes , which are forwarded to their destination based on their IP address analogous to a mailing address.
Optical products provide the physical medium used to connect distant locations at very high speeds. Optical products are analogous to the highway system with each wavelength of light similar to to a lane on the highway that connects connects one dest destination ination to another. Enterprise companies typically leverage onpremise voice infrastructure known as PBXs to cost effectively provide local and long distance voice connectivity.
The video conferencing market also includes network infrastructure known as MCUs products, which enable large enterprise customers to connect, manage and secure various video endpoints.
These products are seeing strong demand as users become more mobile and increasingly adopt smart phone and tablet-based form factors. Source: Cisco Systems, Inc.
We cloud. We believe the emergence of cloud computing is an important trend with material implications for wireline equipment and data networking vendors.
We define cloud computing as the ability to enable any authorized person access to a pool of IT resources at any time from any location. Currently most companies maintain their own private clouds resources owned and managed by the company. Savvis filters and correlates that event flow down to 4, unique events for review by its operations team. Customers sign over 30 commercial orders every day, resulting in upgrades and downgrades to their installed services. To keep up with the dynamic customer environment, Savvis upgrades its own infrastructure 4 times per day in scheduled windows 7.
For each of these Services, Savvis has a standardized Service Guide that instructs Operations and Customer Service personnel on which processes to follow and systems to use in order to instantiate the service. Number of active datacenters in Savvis portfolio, supporting the global Hosting Business Unit.
Number of newly constructed Savvis datacenters in and What To Know? Why are three distinct models commonly lumped together as The Cloud? What do these three distinct models have in common? Cloud Services enable outsourcing complexity while retaining control over the datacenter experience The CIO s challenge is never that easy.
It is intended for information. The Internet Protocol Journal, Volume 12,. Perpetual licenses involve software possession. IT IS. Presentation Agenda Turnkey Technologies, Inc. Public cloud adoption is driven by the business, not IT Empowered. Background Used by more than 2. Cloud is New Technology 2. If It s Virtualized, It s Cloud 3. SaaS, IaaS – It. Disaster recovery strategic planning: How achievable will it be? Infrastructure on the Cloud Faster, Easier, Economical Global cloud leader Formed by 10 industry veterans in Model predicated on software-driven infrastructure Unencumbered by early-industry legacy.
Where in the Cloud are You? Agenda: 1. SimpliVity Overview 2. The Problem 3. The Solution 4. Demo Simplify IT with. Computing with cloud? In many cases, existing core skill sets transfer directly to cloud technologies.
Savvis Overview Who is Savvis Savvis is an IT outsourcing provider delivering visionary enterprise-class cloud and IT solutions and proactive service, and enabling enterprises to gain a competitive advantage. ITU Kaleidoscope The fully networked human? Data center architecture. Fundamental Architecture. Virtualization Basics. It is intended for information purposes only,. Cloud creates path to profitability for Australian businesses A complimentary report from cloud-based business management software provider NetSuite Introduction Australian businesses are facing a dynamic.
Forward-looking Statements This presentation contains projections and other forward-looking statements regarding future events or the future financial performance of Cisco, including future operating results. Solutions for higher performance! Cloud services allow individuals. Fundamental Cloud Architecture. Cloud platforms: IaaS, PaaS,. CenturyLink Cloud Infrastructure, application services, and managed services – all in a single, integrated platform Businesses like yours are moving their apps to CenturyLink Cloud.
All signs point to. Public, Private and Hybrid Cloud. All rights reserved. A user experience and a business.
Cloud Strategy Design Your Cloud Strategy for Long-term Success Delivering every type of enterprise workload as a cloud service through a standardized hybrid cloud architecture 2 IT leaders are redefining. To help clarify the market and reduce. As the. Cloud Computing Architecture: A Survey Abstract Now a day s Cloud computing is a complex and very rapidly evolving and emerging area that affects IT infrastructure, network services, data management and.